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Here we look at the European leading indicators in the world of economics.

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Key insights:

• Cross-border CRE investment into Europe (excl. UK) reached €27.1bn in H1 2025, up 6% on the same period last year, according to preliminary MSCI RCA data.  While the first quarter marked the strongest start to a year since 2022, Q2 saw a moderation in activity, mirroring a broader global slowdown amid ongoing uncertainty. The region remains the leading destination for global capital, supported by its relative safe-haven status. For further insights into what is driving investment in Europe, watch featuring perspectives from our local research experts.
  
  
• The Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone, currently at +32.1, indicates that recent economic data has consistently exceeded forecasts, suggesting greater resilience than previously expected. This contrasts with the US reading of +2.8 which reflects only a slight outperformance relative to forecasts.
  
  
• The EU economy is forecast to grow 1.2% this year, with Oxford Economics expecting it to stay just above 1% even in a worst-case trade war. While President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff on EU imports poses downside risk and may slow GDP next year, a recession is currently not forecast.