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The next London Plan will shape how London will develop over the next 23 years (2027-2050). Its early consultation document, ‘Towards a new London Plan’, outlines the ambitions of the Next London Plan and the policy ideas proposed to achieve them.

Our research experts have examined these proposals in more detail, exploring their potential impact on housing delivery, high street, industrial land supply, workspaces, and London’s environmental future.

SCALING UP HOUSING DELIVERY
The consultation paper on the new London Plan sets out an ambitious vision to deliver 880,000 homes over the next decade. This marks a significant scaling-up of housing delivery to address London’s persistent shortfall.

Getting there won’t be easy, especially given trends are currently moving in the wrong direction: new private housing starts dropped to their lowest quarterly level since 2009 in the first three months of this year. On an annual basis, private housing starts are more than 77% lower than their 2015 peak.

The latest outturn for affordable housing starts for 2023-24 points to an 84% drop versus the previous 12-month period.

Planning approvals in the capital have fallen 2% year-on-year from already low levels, and only four boroughs have met or exceeded their housing targets laid out in the 2021 London Plan, which aimed for 52,000 homes per annum.

The Community Infrastructure Levy, Section 106 agreements planning fees, the Gateway process for approvals of high rise residential buildings, plus still-high interest rates, have pushed many and developments past the point of viability, and Labour’s changes to the planning system are not likely to solve these issues in the capital – particularly when you take the land prices into account.

That said, the mayor’s consultation on a new London Plan does signal a policy shift, with more flexible planning tools, selective Green Belt release, and a stronger role for public and transport-linked development.

SOURCES OF SUPPLY
Brownfield sites remain the central focus for housing delivery. These include underutilised land in town centres, around transport nodes, and in industrial locations. The new Plan supports increased densities and encourages further development through small site intensification, especially in outer boroughs.

However, the document acknowledges that brownfield land alone is unlikely to meet the full scale of housing need.

A significant policy shift is proposed through the selective release of Green Belt land for strategic development, as well as a potential loosening of restraints on Metropolitan Open Land. The consultation advocates for large-scale schemes of over 10,000 homes on well-located sites that are either already well-connected to transport or have strong potential for new infrastructure, though our view, shared by the BPF, is that 10,000 homes is too big a definition for a large site.

Our previous research into Grey Belt sites, identified more than 4,600 previously developed sites within the London Green Belt area which could be used for housing.

Opportunity Areas remain pivotal to growth, with over 40 identified and expected to deliver a minimum of 2,500 homes each. There is significant potential, and while some Areas like Stratford and Vauxhall have delivered, overall progress has been slow. Indeed, In the three years to March 2023, Opportunity Areas accounted for over 40% of London's annual housing delivery, averaging 16,500 homes per year. However, completions fell to 9,883 homes in the year to March 2024, the lowest in nine years.

Public land and transport-led development are also expected to play a major role. Transport for London and Places for London are targeting around 20,000 homes by the early 2030s, focusing on sites located on or near transport infrastructure. These locations offer opportunities, not only for high-density development, but also for increasing affordable housing provision, often through joint ventures and cross-subsidy models.

ENABLERS
To facilitate delivery, the GLA is exploring revisions to the Fast Track affordable housing threshold to provide greater clarity and improve viability. The planning system itself may also undergo simplification, with digitised processes and potentially a new statutory presumption in favour of housing on brownfield land. These changes are intended to accelerate consent timelines and reduce uncertainty for developers.

The Plan also introduces more viability-flexible policies, acknowledging the financial challenges of delivering homes on marginal or complex sites. This includes allowing for policy differentiation by geography or site type, and encouraging tenure diversification such as build to rent to improve feasibility.

CHALLENGES
One of the major barriers to delivery is the misalignment of borough Local Plans. Currently, only around 30% are fully aligned with the existing London Plan targets, creating inconsistencies and delays in housing delivery. The consultation hints that the mayor may need to intervene more directly in plan-making to overcome these obstacles.

Maintaining affordable housing delivery at or above 35% remains a core ambition, but rising construction and land costs have made this increasingly difficult. Solutions proposed include more public subsidy, wider adoption of intermediate tenures such as London Living Rent, and the use of public land to enable higher levels of cross-subsidised affordable housing, but more could be done. Abolishing late stage review mechanisms would help, for example, as would affordable housing policies that are bespoke to different product types - including for multifamily housing and co-living - to better reflect the different funding mechanisms and  costs associated.

The delivery of the new Plan’s ambitions will be highly dependent on the timely completion of major transport infrastructure projects, such as the Bakerloo Line Extension and DLR upgrades. A stronger role for the mayor in delivering large-scale schemes, potentially through Development Corporations or similar bodies, will be essential.

Regional collaboration is expected to become increasingly important, particularly with areas beyond Greater London.

CONCLUSION
The New London Plan proposes a more proactive and flexible approach to housing delivery. While the targets are ambitious, achieving them will require unlocking brownfield sites, selectively using Green Belt land, accelerating delivery on public land, and streamlining planning processes. The next phase of plan-making must acknowledge a wider range of housing types that contribute to the whole housing story. We urge greater support and recognition for these sectors to ensure growth of all forms of housing. For the next London Plan to succeed, it will be essential for policymakers to adopt a pragmatic approach that recognises the wider viability challenges in the capital, as well as the regulatory barriers.