51乱伦

Here we look at the leading indicators commodities, trade, equities and more. in the world of economics. for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.

Here The 鈥榖ack to work鈥� budget?

Tomorrow, Chancellor Hunt will deliver the UK spring budget, which is expected to focus on increasing labour market participation. At present, the UK economic inactivity rate is 21.3%, according to the ONS. Hunt is therefore expected to announce measures to entice workers back into employment. The backdrop is that UK unemployment remains close to record lows at 3.7% in January. Hunt is also expected to cut taxes on business capital, which go some way to counteracting the impending planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25% and the ending of the 鈥渟uper deduction鈥� tax break for investment.
we look at the leading indicators commodities, trade, equities and more. in the world of economics. Download the dashboard for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.

UK tech and life science sectors welcome HSBC鈥檚 SVB UK acquisition

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is the largest US bank collapse since 2008. SVB鈥檚 collapse and the closure of Signature Bank has created volatility within equity and bond markets. The UK 10-year gilt yield compressed by 41bps to 3.34% yesterday. It has since softened to 3.50%. However, US banking sector uncertainty was priced into swap rates last week. UK 5-year Sonia swaps are currently 3.73%, down from 4.09% on Friday. HSBC鈥檚 acquisition of SVB UK is expected to protect c.3,300 UK tech and life science businesses. Since the acquisition, the Bank of England announced that no other UK banks were "materially affected" by the collapse and that the banking system remained "safe, sound, and well capitalised". UK biotech and venture capital leaders welcomed HSBC鈥檚 acquisition, as a major UK bank now supports the life science sector.

Money markets scale back interest rate hike expectations

The Bank of England, European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are all due to make interest rate decisions over the next two weeks. As a result of the SVB collapse, it is widely expected by money markets that the US Federal Reserve will choose to pause rate hikes in March, keeping the interest rate unchanged at a target range of 4.50% - 4.75%. Money markets are taking a similar approach with the European Central Bank base rate, now expecting it to peak at 3.25%, down from expectations of a 4.20% peak last week. Meanwhile, markets previously implied a near 100% probability of the Bank of England raising rates by at least 25bps on 23rd March, this has since come down to a 71% implied probability. All else equal, interest rates peaking sooner and at a lower rate will likely be supportive of real estate prices.