51乱伦

Given the current crisis in the Ukraine and a renewed focus on food security, the government will no doubt be lambasted from some quarters for the timing of its new green paper on nature recovery. Anticipating such criticism, Tony Juniper, Chair of Natural England - the government鈥檚 environmental advisory body - states in his 鈥淓nvironmental security is every bit as vital as energy and food security and failing to take steps now, while there is still a window of opportunity to avoid the worst impacts of the nature and climate change emergencies, will ramp up huge costs later on.鈥� Just to reiterate what I said last week, the government needs to take a properly holistic view of agriculture and the countryside. Given the diversity of England鈥檚 farming landscape, the right policies should be able to deliver both food security and environmental recovery.

Do get in touch if we can help in any way

Andrew Shirley, Head of Rural Research

In this week鈥檚 update:

•       Commodity markets 鈥� Oil down, but grains up
•       Nature recovery 1 鈥� Natural England launches green paper
•       Nature recovery 2 鈥� Government releases new targets
•       Dairy farming 鈥� Cost crisis could see empty shelves
•       The Rural Report 鈥� Sign up to watch our ground-breaking video
•       Brexit 鈥� Trade department needs to be transparent on deals
•       Overseas news 鈥� Canadian farmland boom

Commodity markets 鈥� Oil down, but grains up

Two big themes saw oil prices retreat back below the US$100/barrel mark last week. Markets are more hopeful that Vladimir Putin will have to sign a peace deal in the Ukraine given the somewhat humiliating performance of his armed forces in the country, while the worsening Covid-19 outbreak in China is pegging back the country鈥檚 growth prospects, and hence forecast demand for oil. Grain and oilseed prices, however, continued to rise, putting further pressure on feed intensive livestock and dairy businesses (see article below).

Nature recovery 1 鈥� Natural England launches green paper

The government has just released a that sets out a plan for how it will achieve its environmental ambitions in England, such as protecting 30% of the country鈥檚 land and sea by 2030 (鈥�30 by 30鈥�) and hitting net zero emissions by 2050.

Aspects of the plan include rationalising the many regulations and designations used to protect the environment, 鈥渄esignating for recovery鈥� as well as 鈥減rotecting what is already there鈥�, and placing science above process in determining conservation outcomes.

To help deliver it, the government also aims to facilitate marketplaces for ecosystem services and encourage £500 million of private funding to support nature recovery by 2027 and £1 billion by 2030.

Claire Whitfield of our Rural Consultancy team believes the goals 鈥渁re ambitious yet exciting鈥�, but to be achievable 鈥渢here has to be a melting of the inertia between the rural and urban economies鈥�.

鈥淭hrough collaboration both sectors must work together to repair the degradation of the past and importantly safeguard and enhance our landscape and environment for the future. But this has to be a team effort.

鈥淐onnecting these two previously divergent economies through collaborative arrangements to provide the resource and funding for this recovery is going to be key to unlocking the environmental gain possible and thus achieving the goals proposed.鈥�

A on the green paper closes on 11 May.

Nature recovery 2 鈥� Government releases new targets

In addition to the green paper discussed above, the government has just announced a linked to last year鈥檚 Environment Act that cover water and air quality and wildlife diversity. These will drive government policy affecting farmers and landowners. The targets will be open for consultation for the next eight weeks.

The targets include:
鈥� Reducing exposure to the most harmful air pollutant to human health 鈥� PM2.5 鈥� by over a third compared to 2018 levels
鈥� A legally binding requirement to increase species populations by 10% by 2042.
鈥� Halving the waste that ends up at landfill or incineration by 2042
鈥� Increasing total tree cover by 3% by 2050
鈥� Significant improvements in the condition of Marine Protected Areas by 2042

Dairy farming 鈥� Cost crisis could see empty shelves

Last week I touched on the impact of rising feed and energy costs on the pig sector. This week it is milk. As mentioned in Farmers Weekly, dairy specialist Kite Consulting says farm-gate milk prices need to hit 40p/litre just to cover the increased costs of production.

Farmers are already producing less milk and Ash Amirahmadi the boss of Arla Foods, the UK鈥檚 biggest dairy, even that supermarkets could run out of the white stuff if they don鈥檛 up their prices for producers.

鈥淲e are likely to have supply problems in May or June of this year. If retailers are willing to stump up what鈥檚 required, we won鈥檛 have supply issues. But if that doesn鈥檛 happen, we may be looking at a 4 to 5% shortfall. Shops could run out of milk.鈥�

Brexit 鈥� Trade department needs to be transparent on deals

from the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has warned that the economic benefits of post-Brexit trade deals have not been made clear by the government.

It said it was also unlikely the government would hit its target of ensuring 80% of UK trade was covered by a free trade deal by the end of the year and urged it to be more transparent by consulting better with parliament, industry and special interest groups about the shape of future deals.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Deputy Chair of the committee, said the Department for International Trade was 鈥渞eally struggling to point to tangible wins鈥� for business, consumers or the British agriculture sector.

Nick von Westenholz, Director of Trade at the NFU, said: 鈥淗opefully this report is a wake-up call that we need far better co-ordination between domestic and trade policy, and we need to properly monitor the impact of trade deals as they come online, to better design and adapt policy to ensure farm businesses benefit,鈥� he said.

The Rural Report 鈥� Sign up to watch our ground-breaking video

The latest edition of The Rural Report, our unique publication for rural landowners and their advisors, was launched with a video highlighting some of its key content around the topic of ESG. If you missed it, you can sign up to watch on demand at your leisure. It was a lot of fun making it and includes a thought provoking interview on diversity, with Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones AKA The Black Farmer. I think you鈥檒l find it both entertaining and informative.

Overseas news 鈥� Canadian farmland boom

Canada鈥檚 farmland continued to rise in value last year despite harsh weather conditions and supply chain issues, according to the from Farm Credit Canada.
The average price of land across the country rose by 8.3% in 2021, compared with 5.4% in 2020. The largest increases were recorded in Ontario and British Columbia (22.2 and 18.1%, respectively), followed by Prince Edward Island (15.2%), Nova Scotia (12.3%) and Quebec (10%).

鈥淭he low interest rate environment and favourable commodity prices seem to have offset some of the many challenges that could have been expected to restrain the demand for farmland and the price producers are willing to pay for land,鈥� said J P Gervais, FCC鈥檚 chief economist.