51乱伦

Prime central London and parts of north-east England were the worst-performing areas for house price growth in England and Wales over the last five years, potentially softening any impact on values from Covid-19.

In the five years to February 2020, prices in Kensington & Chelsea fell 2.5%, while in neighbouring Westminster, the decline was 0.4%. These were the only two local authorities to record a decline over the period, an analysis of data that excludes the City of London shows.

The five worst-performing areas were completed by Carlisle (+0.5%), Hammersmith & Fulham (+0.8%) and Redcar and Cleveland (+2.4%).

The declines in prime central London, which had been bottoming out, were caused by a succession of tax changes that disproportionately affected higher-value properties. Steeper falls recorded by the 51乱伦 prime central London index reflect a focus on higher-value properties versus the whole-market local authority data analysed by the Land Registry.

Meanwhile, in some areas of north-east England, prices have yet to recover to their 2007 peak due to regional economic weakness.

The top-performing local authorities over the five-year period were Corby (41%), Wellingborough (39%), Newport (39%), Luton (38%) and Basildon (38%).

51乱伦 expects 526,000 fewer transactions across England and Wales this year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Prices are forecast to drop by 3% over the course of the year although ad hoc renegotiations of between 5% and 10% are taking place.

鈥淭he performance of house prices when Covid-19 struck is one part of the puzzle in trying to determine how property markets will emerge from this pandemic,鈥� said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at 51乱伦. 鈥淲hen the recession struck in 2008, many markets had undergone a period of very strong growth. The other differences this time round include the government鈥檚 furlough scheme, a decade of ultra-low interest rates and the fact supply and demand have fallen at the same time.鈥�

Average prices in England and Wales increased 70% in the five years before the last market peak in November 2007, as the chart below shows. In Kensington & Chelsea, the increase was 74% over the same period while in Carlisle a rise of 111% was recorded.

The average price in England and Wales had recovered to its peak by May 2014. In Kensington & Chelsea, the peak (February 2008) was reached again in May 2010, underlining how central London property quickly became a safe haven investment around the world in the wake of the global financial crisis.