Leading Indicators | BoE likely to deliver fifth rate cut on Thursday as markets signal more ahead
Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. For in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.
05 August 2025
Markets see prolonged BoE easing cycle through 2026
The Bank of England is expected to deliver its fifth quarter-point rate cut this Thursday, bringing the benchmark rate down from 4.25% to 4.00%. Swaps markets are pricing in a strong likelihood of a cut, with expectations for further easing over the coming year - reaching just over three quarter-point cuts by July and September 2026. While the US Federal Reserve held rates steady last week, the BoE appears set to maintain its gradual easing path as it navigates a weakening labour market.
The UK is expected to outperform European peers in latest economic projections
The IMF has upgraded its UK growth forecast, raising the 2025 outlook by +10bps to 1.2% and projecting GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026. This positions the UK as the third fastest-growing economy in the G7, behind only the US and Canada. Notably, Britain is also expected to outpace all major European economies in growth this year.
Logistics #1 in Q2 2025
In Q2 2025, the Logistics sector led with £3.5bn in investment. This was followed by Offices (£2.7bn), Retail (£2.2bn), the Living Sectors (£1.9bn) and Hotels (£0.5bn). Logistics (+71%), Retail (+24%), Offices (+6%) and the Living Sectors (+2%) were the only sectors to record an increase in investment QoQ in Q2 2025. Overall, the uptick across key sectors signals early signs of a broader recovery in UK CRE investment volumes.
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